Microsoft stock has crept higher since it sank three months ago on word of its Yahoo bid.

Can Microsoft do it again?

Late last year, investors and analysts were wringing their hands over a tech stock collapse. With the economy starting to slow, investors punished a slew of big techs including Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). Not even hot-growth companies like Apple (AAPL) and Research in Motion (RIMM) were spared.

Then Microsoft reported earnings in January, and the sun came out: $6.5 billion in profit for the holiday quarter on sales of $16.4 billion. And best of all, the forecast was bright. “We actually feel very optimistic,” said Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell. “The next six months we feel very good about.”

The HP Mini laptop is aimed at the education market, but it could appeal to road warriors as well. Image: HP

Pick up HP’s new $500 mini-laptop, and the first thing you notice is the aluminum casing. Though the thing weighs only about 2.5 pounds, what’s striking is how its sleek skin makes it feel solid and professional – not at all what you’d expect from a budget PC.

I’m in a suite at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco getting a first look at Hewlett-Packard’s (HPQ) latest machine, which the company hopes will help it steal share from Dell (DELL) and Apple (AAPL) in the education market. (Each of the three companies has just under 20 percent of the worldwide market.) HP’s development team, I’m told, consulted educators as they designed the 2133 Mini-Note, and as I turn the laptop over in my hands that comes through in little details.

Microsoft has a profitable business building software for the Mac; now it has an eye on the iPhone, too. Image: Apple

Tom Gibbons, head of Microsoft’s Specialized Devices and Applications Group, said the focus would be on extending Office functions onto the iPhone and iPod touch. Image: Microsoft

Don’t think for a minute that Microsoft is ignoring the iPhone. In fact, the software giant is probing the gadget for profit opportunities.

For a little more than a week, a team of the company’s Silicon Valley software engineers has been examining the iPhone software development kit (SDK for short), a set of tools Apple (AAPL) released this month that let outsiders build software for the iPhone and the iPod touch. Microsoft (MSFT) executives aren’t sure yet whether they’ll find worthwhile opportunities to sell iPhone software – but they seem eager to find out.

“It’s really important for us to understand what we can bring to the iPhone,” Tom Gibbons, corporate vice president of Microsoft’s Specialized Devices and Applications Group, told Fortune on Monday. “To the extent that Mac Office customers have functionality that they need in that environment, we’re actually in the process of trying to understand that now.”

Though it’s typical to think of Apple and Microsoft as pure software rivals, their relationship is actually more complicated. For more than a decade, Microsoft has maintained a group of engineers whose sole job is to develop software for Apple’s Macintosh operating systems. Most of the engineers in Microsoft’s Mac Business Unit are based in Mountain View, Calif., a few miles from Apple’s headquarters. (They also happen to be quite close to the headquarters of archrival Google (GOOG).)

The Mac unit’s work certainly isn’t charity – it delivers millions of dollars in profit for the company with its Mac version of the Office productivity suite. Microsoft doesn’t break out exact numbers, but we can extrapolate: Gibbons said the Mac Business Unit provides about a third of the revenue for the Specialized Devices and Applications Group, which also includes Windows Embedded, Microsoft Hardware, the Automotive Business Unit and Microsoft Surface Computing; the whole group did more than $1 billion in sales last year. So it’s reasonable to guess that the Mac unit provided about $350 million – and since Gibbons said the Mac group was one of the group’s more profitable units, it’s possible that Microsoft made somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million in profit from Mac software.

In six weeks, Yahoo will get one more chance to prove it can turn things around without Microsoft. Courtesy of Yahoo.

Yahoo stock spiked after Microsoft’s bid, reclaiming levels it last saw in November when investors were more optimistic.

Six weeks ago, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer sent shockwaves through the tech world when he offered more than $40 billion to buy Yahoo. And about six weeks from now, Yahoo’s unwilling executives may have their last, best chance to wiggle free of Ballmer’s grip.

That’s because late next month, Yahoo will present its latest earnings numbers to Wall Street. Investors will pick through the sales and profit numbers, ask incisive questions, and potentially bid its stock price up or down, effectively tipping the scales in favor of either Yahoo (YHOO) or Microsoft (MSFT).

It could be Yahoo’s final opportunity to prove it can thrive on its own. For nearly a year, investors waited for CEO Jerry Yang to deliver his promised shakeup and begin taking market share from Google (GOOG). But Yang was slow to trim staff or make other changes, and the stock lost nearly a third of its value on his watch. That set the stage for Yahoo’s annual meeting sometime this summer, where Microsoft is expected to try ousting Yahoo’s board and installing directors who will bless its takeover plans.

Analysts don’t expect much from Yahoo. On average, they expect revenue of $1.32 billion, which is at the low end of the range that executives gave in January.

HP Chief Strategy and Technology Officer Shane Robison says the reorganization of HP Labs should speed innovation and eventually boost profit margins. Image: HP

Now that it’s an undisputed turnaround story, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is looking for ways to fuel long-term growth. An important piece of its plan is HP Labs, a group of 600 top-flight researchers who work to develop breakthrough technologies. To better position HP Labs as a growth engine, the company announced Thursday that it will refocus its efforts on five areas: Information explosion, dynamic cloud services, content transformation, intelligent infrastructure and sustainability. (Earlier: Turning an idea farm into a hit factory)

I sat down with HP strategy and technology chief Shane Robison to talk about the research shift, and what it means for the company. Below is an edited transcript of our chat.

Journalists and others wait for the iPhone SDK event to begin. Image: Jon Fortt

Refresh this page for updates.

Apple (AAPL) this morning is announcing details about how it will open the iPhone and iPod touch to outside developers. The company has also promised new details about how enterprises can take advantage of the iPhone, putting it in more direct competition with Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry and Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows Mobile devices.

The event has not yet begun.

Steve Jobs has taken the stage.

Memory prices are bruising profit margins, but CEO Paul Otellini says the chip giant can still thrive.

CEO Paul Otellini spent 2007 restoring investor faith in Intel; thanks to a slow economy and eroding memory prices, he’s got more work to do. Image: Intel

Facing flagging profit margins and a skeptical Wall Street, Intel (INTC) CEO Paul Otellini hosted investors at the company’s Silicon Valley headquarters Wednesday. His message: Despite a weak U.S. economy and an ugly memory market, the Internet boom will supercharge revenues at the world’s largest chipmaker.

“We essentially think we can triple the market for our products,” Otellini told a gathering of financial analysts. “And this isn’t assuming that we have a full run of every market; it’s assuming we have a moderate view of success.”

But Intel’s growth story is a tougher sell today than it was a few months ago, which helps explain why the company took the unusual step of hosting investors at its Santa Clara headquarters instead of doing the event in New York as usual. And the tough sell is not just an issue for Intel; since November, when it became clear that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis could tip the economy into recession, the tech industry in general has been hit hard. Stocks like Intel and Apple (AAPL) that were investor darlings in 2007 have suffered gut-wrenching losses; Intel has shed more than $35 billion in market capitalization, a quarter of its value, since December.

By Jon Fortt and Michal Lev-Ram

Will Apple give up some control over the iPhone in order to court corporate customers?

That’s one of the juiciest questions surrounding a gathering on Apple’s (AAPL) campus Thursday, where CEO Steve Jobs has promised to open up the iPhone’s software secrets to the world for the first time. Apple’s invitation to the event also hinted at new business-friendly features for the device, and Silicon Valley is abuzz about what that could mean. Will the BlackBerry-toting masses be able to trade in the company smartphone for an iPhone?

Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates talks about SharePoint updates. Image: Microsoft

Hoping to draw attention away from Google’s (GOOG) online software efforts, Microsoft (MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates is set to announce the expansion of a program that lets business customers collaborate on the web.

On Monday at its SharePoint conference in Seattle, Gates is expected to say that Microsoft Online Services, which has been available since September to businesses with 5,000 or more employees, will be open to smaller companies later this year. The subscription-based service offers e-mail, productivity, and audio/video conferencing, and is available now in beta.

Online software may be the future of computing – but the truth is, it’s far from perfect.

• February 12: Research in Motion’s BlackBerry e-mail service goes on the blink for three hours, and slows again a week later.
• February 15: Problems with Amazon Web Services’ S3 online storage service takes several sites down for two hours.
• February 24: Google’s YouTube video service is knocked offline.
• February 26: Some customers of Microsoft’s Hotmail e-mail have their service unavailable for several hours.
  Continue Reading: “‘Cloud’ computing’s reliability gap”