Covering the digital giants, by Jon Fortt
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January 14, 2008, 11:08 am

Don’t get too excited about IBM

The market was all set to throw itself a big pity party, and along comes IBM to ruin it all. But it’s too soon to say Big Blue’s sunny report will be enough to breathe life back into tech stocks.

IBM 3-month chart

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Good news from the tech bellwether sent the overall stock market higher this morning, and boosted IBM’s (IBM) own stock price by 7 percent in early trading. The company, which serves as a gauge of corporate technology spending, pre-announced fourth quarter operating earnings that were 24 percent higher than a year ago, and fourth quarter revenues that rose 10 percent to $28.9 billion, both beating analyst expectations. The company’s full report is due Thursday.

Still, a little perspective is in order. Even at the heights of its Monday rally, when it danced around $105 per share, IBM stock is short of the $111 reached just a couple of weeks ago. And it’s far from the 52-week high of $121 per share it achieved last fall.

When it comes down to it, IBM’s earnings pre-announcement offers little new information. Ever since Cisco (CSCO) CEO John Chambers in November spooked Wall Street by signaling that large U.S. companies aren’t spending like they used to, tech investors have been in a funk. But Chambers also offered upside: In a global economy, tech companies like Cisco aren’t as reliant on the buying whims of big domestic corporations. Oracle (ORCL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Intel (INTC) have echoed that sentiment, and more than a few tech executives lately have quietly grumbled that investors are overdoing their bearish reaction to the U.S. slowdown.

What, then, to make of the IBM pre-announcement? CEO Sam Palmisano gave some interesting spin:

“The broad scope of IBM’s global business — led by strong operational performance in Asia, Europe and emerging countries — drove these outstanding results,” he said in a statement. “IBM is well-positioned as we begin 2008 as a result of our global business reach, solid recurring revenue stream and strong financial position. We are on track to achieve our long-term earnings-per-share roadmap objective in 2010.”

A translation, for those who don’t speak CEO:

“U.S. corporate buyers don’t look so hot, but thanks to a weak dollar and overseas customers, we’re making the best of it. Since no one expects the dollar to perk up soon, that overseas income should keep us looking good in 2008. Don’t forget, we have a huge services business, so customers pay us to fix their old stuff even if they don’t buy new stuff! And we have $16 billion in the bank! So don’t panic. Look! Profits!”

Palmisano’s pre-announcement was a nice gift to traders after last week’s rout, but tech’s not out of the woods yet. With more and more voices on Wall Street worried about a recession, it could be hard to keep investors feeling optimistic. We’ll see how well Palmisano does later this week, when he’s sure to face lots of questions from skeptical analysts.

Profits up because the blue piggie is suckin the life out of the employees and what remains of the company. ibm - the financial engineering company.

Posted By sonOFsam Armonk, NY : January 20, 2008 1:18 pm

Another foot note to this story is how the Tech center has been focuses on providing efficiency within the supply chain. In a down economy, Tech. is one of the few industries that helps pull profit and ROI out of existing processes. To increase margins with reduced Consumer spending, companies will be forced to invest in Tech. Good new for the sector.

Posted By Chris, Denver, CO : January 15, 2008 3:52 pm

Clever, buy a $60B appl vendor…. pooling of interests ring a bell? HSR perhaps? Don’t think so…. IBM went up application hill twice already and wrote off billions..

Posted By pokey, San Jose, CA : January 15, 2008 12:11 pm

IBM is still in a downward spiral trying to pull any and all tricks out of its bag to still make margins.

If they were smart, they’d expand from the components and expand into the application market.

IBM should buy SAP to compete against Oracle and have a longer term future.

Posted By Gumby : January 15, 2008 9:33 am

All is not rosy with IBM.

First, if you check you can see that the gains they made this year were in areas that were not so good last year. IBM cycles growth in areas where they focus their attention.

Second, IBM is doing well because they are cutting corners by “global” sourcing their staff. Why is this bad? Because employee XXXXX and XXYYY may do the same job but are not equivalent in their skill set and ability. So as they have a temporary gain in margin, they quality of work suffers. At the same time, IBM loses the value add of going with IBM and their margins start to suffer. In short. Short term gains, for long term losses.

Posted By Anonymous : January 15, 2008 9:31 am

Okay, so the author’s point is: 1) Don’t be excited about IBM and tech stocks. 2) Because their good performance still doesn’t show that the US economy is doing well in other sectors. Yeah yeah okay, but STILL the tech sector is doing mighty fine, stoopid… Anyway we all know that these analyst guys are hoarding tech stocks at the ridiculous prices they are advising us to keep them.

Posted By Marty, San Jose, CA : January 15, 2008 4:20 am

Leveraging global economy for growth has been a strategy of numerous organizations for a while now - it is good to see IBM is also succeeding with such a strategy and that in my opinion is a desired success criteria for US organizations. We need to celebrate this.
For those of you who travel around the world you will observe that there are very different technology footprints in many countries - one very visible one being telecom. The ones which are better than ours came from innovation and INNOVATION is the key to change and we need a lot of work on that front. Even if we cannot implement all innovations in the US, we still need to lead them - even if it is better suited for other countries. Perhaps thats how we maintain our leadership in the world.

Posted By DS, San Diego, CA : January 14, 2008 5:49 pm

The media is preoccupied with the possibilty of recession. Media gurus have predicted 30 of the last 7 recessions. If we have a growth slow down but don’t approach 2 negative growth quarters (my guess), the record will be 31 of the last 7. Negative sentiment, like media hype, is a contrary indicator.

Posted By Jake Melville, Sacramento, CA : January 14, 2008 4:23 pm

IBM is fully committed to a global delivery model. The company is rapidly and continuously shedding expensive US workers. It has been so successful in quietly implementing this strategy that the center of gravity of the corporate staff will soon be in Asia. IBM is well on it’s way to becoming one of the first US corporations to become truly international in character.

Posted By Michael Nelson, Minneapolis, MN : January 14, 2008 4:12 pm

OK, so WHY the pre-announcement on a very easy to predict slow financial news day? Market manipulation so somebody’s 12th cousin could make a one day trade killeing? Does over 150 points up on the Dow make sense at all? It’s like watching sharks in afeding frenzy - good time to buy RYURX in preparation for what’s coming - I did!

Posted By Bob, Detroit Mi. : January 14, 2008 4:12 pm

You are right on point! IBM is doing well because of international capital spending projects, not domestic capital spending projections. It looks good for Big Blue not the rest of the U.S. companies who do not have a strong global presence and depend upon US Consumer Spending to increase profits.

Posted By Edward, Omaha NE : January 14, 2008 4:07 pm

You missed the unspoken line of - “and we still 10,000 US employees lined up to be fired in 2008 which will improve our global position”.

IBM only beat earnings by accellerating share buy backs look for 1Q to also be good so that in 2Q they can take massive write-offs without damaging the stock price too much when they do the massive lay-offs in May.

Posted By allison, boulder, CO : January 14, 2008 2:46 pm

I am sick of all the doomsday talk. IBM busted earnings in a time when everyone wants there to be bad news. Take the good news and run with it. Apple has Mac World this week and RIMM also reported a blowout quarter recently. Bernanke will help us out so throw yourself a pity party and leave the rest of us alone. Most of these companies are great companies that will be around a long time and as such deserve to be invested in.

Posted By Derek, Elizaebthtown KY : January 14, 2008 2:10 pm

Doesnt matter, Depression going to hit us anyways.

Posted By Charles, NY NY : January 14, 2008 1:53 pm

Right on Chris! And Ranter…please stop dumbing down this reply thread with your shoddy diction.

Posted By Jon, Washington D.C. : January 14, 2008 1:40 pm

Interesting. So, since IBM stock did not go up enough (still below the price 2 weeks ago), there is no new information in the pre-announcement? Earnings and guidance looks great and if the price has not even got to the 2-week ago level, it means there is a lot of upside!

Posted By Mahesh, Austin, TX : January 14, 2008 12:34 pm

hey “ranter in dc”

I believe you want “exacerbate” and not “exasperate” ;o) haha

Posted By chris in San Jose, CA : January 14, 2008 12:24 pm

The “Bulls” have their heads in the sand as far as the obvious direction the economy is going. They consider “only a $5 Billion dollar loss” good news these days . If they consider that good news, I’m glad I have nothing invested in the stock market. I would never trust my money to clowns who think that way. They make sure they get their muilti-million dollar bonuses and that the investors are left holding the bag containing all the losses.

Whaaaaat a country!

Posted By Jim, Jenkintown, Pa : January 14, 2008 12:09 pm

Thanks for reminding us that for every silver lining there is a cloud. When will you do the story about Santa Claus being obese?

Posted By Don Hoyte, Austin Texas : January 14, 2008 11:53 am

I fail to see the point of this article. IBM got great earnings and guidance, it’s hard to find anything wrong with it, but the writer still doesn’t like it. If it all boils down to how you feel, fine. But if you look at the numbers, they’re great. Bears should remember two thing: one is don’t fight the Fed. The second is that earnings are still very strong. The rest of the world is booming. It’s not all gloom and doom, far from it.

Posted By John, LA, CA : January 14, 2008 11:53 am

big lols to the translation for ‘those that don’t speak ceo’

i guess it’s for those that don’t speak english or if they do, don’t understand the words that are coming out of his mouth!. ( i watched rushHour3 this weekend…so sue me!)

my 2 cents…if you have to dumb down a paragraph so the retards can understand it, perhaps the retards should focus more on their ABCs and less on reading…learn to walk before you run…common sense.

just a vent by me on the obvious dumbing down of this world….it is pathetic and anyone that succors such people with understanding only exasperates the problem.

(for the people that don’t understand succor or exasperate….LOOK IT UP AND LEARN SOMETHING!)

Posted By ranter in dc : January 14, 2008 11:53 am

Whoever wrote this article is a poor sport and probably jealous because he doesn’t own IBM stock.

Some people just can’t help throwing the sour grapes.

Posted By Donna Painter, Salt Lake City, UT : January 14, 2008 11:18 am
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Jon ForttA senior writer for Fortune, Jon Fortt focuses on technology and innovation in Silicon Valley - a subject he's been reporting on since his days as a rookie reporter for the Lexington (Ky.) Herald-Leader. Before joining Fortune in 2007, Jon had reporting and editing stints at Business 2.0 magazine, and the San Jose (Calif.) Mercury News, Silicon Valley's hometown newspaper.
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